In a note in early June, when $AAPL traded at $92.12 (split adjusting, closing), I reiterated the bullish view I had held toward the name since October 2013 but also indicated that I felt the end of he road was visible. Specifically, I outlined $97.86 ($685 in pre-split terms) by early July as my price and time objectives.
Fast forward about six weeks, and though the topping process seems to be unfolding in the middle of the month versus our expectations for an early-July peak, $AAPL’s standing high today is within 1% of my target price–just as daily and weekly momentum appear to be peaking.
Thus, by our preferred measure, risk appears to be near an apex for long positions in $AAPL, over two-week and two-month horizons. Accordingly, we are inclined to sell our shares of Apple Inc. today.
Of note, the June piece, referenced previously, articulated the expectation that the long-term bear would assert itself at the July plateau. Since that point, our expectation for the extent to which monthly momentum would support the advance since April 2013 has changed. Our models currently anticipate that long-term momentum will continue to improve into year-end. This implies that one more rally, that likely carries price to new all time highs, might ensue following what appears to be imminent short/medium-term malaise.